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New Market Highs and Positive Expected Returns

  There has been much discussion in the news recently about new nominal highs in stock indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. When markets hit new highs, is that an indication that it’s time for investors to cash out? History tells us that a market index being at an all-time high generally does not provide actionable information for investors. For evidence, we can look at the S&P 500 Index for the better part of the
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Follow a Forecaster or Flip a Coin?

Do you have a favorite forecaster? If so, when is the last time you checked his or her track record? You probably should because research exists that shows professional forecasters are about as accurate, on average, as a coin flip. The chart below is the result of an ongoing analysis of equity market experts and their forecasts — the so-called stock market gurus. Analysts collected data from market forecasters since 1998. They tracked and graded the forecasts, based upon accuracy,
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