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Government Debt and Stock Returns

As of the end of 2020, the US debt held by the public amounted to $22 trillion, an increase of approximately $5 trillion from the year before and well over double the level from a decade ago.1 This trend may be worrisome for investors expecting an adverse impact on stock returns once the bill for all this spending comes due. However, the relation between country debt and stock markets is complex, in part because sovereign solvency is dependent upon many
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Reading Fed Tea Leaves? Watch Market Prices Instead

Fed watching is once again one of the markets’ favorite pastimes. Federal Reserve officials continue to signal that they would favor tapering of bond purchases in 2021, in line with recent announcements from the European Central Bank. When and how remain to be seen. With ample speculation about the Fed, unemployment, and inflation, it might be a good time for a reminder about what Fed announcements can, and cannot, tell us about the future of fixed income markets. Yields reflect
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