Insights

Think back to December 2019. The economy was humming. Unemployment, interest rates, and inflation were at historically low levels. But then what happened? A global pandemic hit. By the end of March, the S&P 500 had dropped nearly 20% in value.1 Later in the year, scientists announced that they’d developed a vaccine, and markets roared back. FAANG stocks soared … before giving up a lot of gains.2 Meme stocks shot way up … and fell back down. Bitcoin and other
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Technology enables immediate access to everything wherever and whenever we want it. In many cases, such as staying in touch with friends and family, or learning about world events, that’s a good thing. However, when it comes to investing and money management, my fear is that faster and easier ways of investing will allow people to lose more money faster and easier. As access to investing expands, it becomes even more important to adopt an investment plan that doesn’t try
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Some investors may worry about the stock market sinking after a recession is officially announced. But history shows that markets incorporate expectations ahead of economic reports. The global financial crisis offers a lesson in the forward-looking nature of the stock market. The US recession spanned from December 2007 to May 2009(1), as indicated by the shaded area in the chart. But the official “in recession” announcement came in December 2008—a year after the recession had started. By then, stock prices
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With all the talk about inflation these days, you may have heard the news that the 2023 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security benefits is 8.7%, the largest in four decades. If you are approaching or over age 62 and haven’t filed for your retirement benefits, you may be wondering if you should file earlier than planned so you do not miss out on the increase. The reality is that you do not need to file now to benefit from
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On November 8, US voters will cast their ballots for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. Many investors are concerned with the effect of election results. Do past results suggest a useful strategy to deal with election-year uncertainty? The answer is yes. For the 96-year period ending in 2021, the S&P 500 Index (with dividends reinvested) posted an average return of 12.33% for all calendar years and results were negative in roughly
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Anger is a helpful emotion. We are angry when we see a person abused, and that anger compels us to intervene, helping the abused. But anger can be harmful when it compels us to say what we will soon regret, such as insulting a friend. We cannot learn to eliminate anger, but we can learn to control it through cognitive reflection. We can follow our parents’ advice: “Count till 10 when you are angry before you speak.” Fear and Hope
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The U.S. stock market continues to record losses in 2022, and the U.S. economy shows signs that we are either in or may soon face a recession. Four charts help illustrate why we think sticking with stocks through tough times is still likely the better path forward for investors than jumping in and out of the market. What Does a Recession Mean for Stock Returns? While not official, there’s reason to believe the U.S. is currently in a recession. Two
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KEY TAKEAWAYS Liquid-alt investments claim they deliver higher potential returns and lower correlations to stocks and bonds—but have fallen short. From June 2006 to June 2022, they underperformed broad indices with higher volatility than fixed income. Investors seeking to increase expected returns and manage risk may do so more reliably using diversified stock and bond strategies. In the face of broad equity and fixed income market downturns, some investors may be tempted by the siren call of alternatives. These investments
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US-based investors may believe they know America best. Accordingly, they are liable to put the bulk of their investments in stocks and bonds of US-based companies and in US federal and municipal fixed income securities. Given the size and relative safety of this market, that may seem a sound approach. Yet this strategy has some holes. “Home bias”(1) can limit your investment opportunities and constrain your ability to benefit from diversification. Consider these revealing numbers: The US stock market is
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Nearly a century of US stock market returns suggests that making investment decisions based on control of the chambers of Congress is unlikely to lead to better investment outcomes. From 1926 to 2022, stocks trended higher regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans controlled the House and the Senate, or whether control was mixed. Actions by Congress and the other branches of the federal government may impact returns, but other factors like geopolitical events, interest rate changes, and technological advances do
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