KEY TAKEAWAYS The prospect of an increase in the federal funds rate has raised questions about future bond performance for some investors. Our analysis of global government bond data from 1984–2021 shows no reliable relation between past changes in the federal funds rate and either future bond excess return over cash or future term premiums. We can target higher expected returns by dynamically varying a strategy’s duration decision based on current term spreads across global yield curves. US consumer prices
Read more
Insights
All Eyes on the Fed? A Look at Federal Funds Rate, Bond Return, and Term Premium
Is It Time to Sell Stocks?
KEY TAKEAWAYS Soaring inflation and record market highs may leave investors wondering whether it’s time to adjust their portfolios. Researchers have examined a wide range of timing strategies based on earnings, dividends, interest rates, economic growth, and more. A recent Morningstar report showed that investors may be better off steering clear of tactical asset allocation strategies and avoiding making short-term shifts among asset classes. After touching record highs in early January, US stocks(1) have slumped, and investors have been confronted
Read more
