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Insights



A Regression to Long-Term Means?

“A Man’s inability to see the power of regression to the mean leaves him blind to the nature of the world around him.” Michael Lewis, The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds.   Reviewing historical annual long-term equity premiums and returns, we can conclude the following: US Small companies outperform US Large Companies by 2.02% International Small companies outperform International Large companies by 4.91% US Value companies outperform US Growth companies by 3.18% International Value companies outperform International
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Planning for Uncertain Times

With last month’s election and ongoing health and economic concerns related to COVID-19, uncertainty remains high, as it has for most of 2020. Unfortunately, this is likely to continue well into 2021 on health, financial and societal fronts. As investors, it’s never enjoyable to navigate periods like this, so we wanted to step back and reinforce our perspective on financial markets as we head into the close of 2020 (and if you are anything like me, it can’t come quickly
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Why Investors Might Think Twice About Chasing the Biggest Stocks

As companies grow to become some of the largest firms trading on the US stock market, the returns that push them there can be impressive. But not long after joining the Top 10 largest by market cap, these stocks, on average, lagged the market. • From 1927 to 2019, the average annualized return for these stocks over the three years prior to joining the Top 10 was nearly 25% higher than the market. In the three years after, the edge
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It’s (not) a small world after all!

Disneyland has a famous ride, accompanied by an identically named song, called “It’s a Small World (After All),” that was developed to celebrate peace and togetherness. While the ride is intended to remind us of how connected we all are, our beliefs about investing may not be as unified or accepting of differences as the ride and song celebrate. To be sure, some investors invest in a literal small world. They focus on investing in their local stock market and
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Tune Out the Noise

There’s a reason that investors tend to only hear about “looming” market doom or “imminent” market growth. While many news outlets have an incentive to draw viewer attention with wildly bullish or bearish predictions, these sensationalized views may be a distraction to a sound investment approach. When tempted to make a radical change to your investment portfolio based on these headlines, it is important to recall some basic fundamentals to keep your plan on track. Tune out the noise: “Markets
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Election Year Politics and Stock Market Forecasts

A recent New York Times article discussed the stock market impact of Joe Biden winning the 2020 presidential election. The article quoted Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who said “The market is starting to worry that Trump will not be re-elected. Trump is consistently viewed as a positive for the stock market.” Before you make changes to your portfolio as a result of these predictions, consider the following three points: 1. Markets have already
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Investing is Simple, but Not Easy

The academic literature on investing is filled with hundreds of anomalies. My own view is that the greatest anomaly of them all is that while investors idolize Warren Buffett, the “Oracle of Omaha”, so many not only tend to ignore his advice but often do the exact opposite. Consider the following advice he has offered on trying to time the market: – In his 1991 annual letter to shareholders, Buffett advised: “ We continue to make more money when snoring
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The Bumpy Road to the Market’s Long-Term Average

Since 1926, the US stock market has rewarded investors with an average annual return of about 10%. But it’s important to remember that returns in any given year may be sky-high, extremely poor, or somewhere in between. Annual returns came within two percentage points of the market’s long-term average of 10% in just six of the past 94 years. Yearly returns have ranged as high as up 54% and as low as down 43%. Since 1926, annual returns have been
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History Shows That Stock Gains Can Add Up After Big Declines

Sudden market downturns can be unsettling. But historically, US equity returns following sharp downturns have, on average, been positive. A broad market index tracking data since 1926 in the US shows that stocks have tended to deliver positive returns over one-year, three-year, and five-year periods following steep declines. Cumulative returns show this to striking effect. Five years after market declines of 10%, 20%, and 30%, the compounded returns all top 50%. Viewed in annualized terms across the longest, five-year period,
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April Planning Action Items

Stuff to Do While Quarantined: Clean Up Expenses and Financial Records “When we throw out the physical clutter, we clear our minds. When we throw out the mental clutter, we clear our souls.” –Gail Blanke I get it. We’re all scared. Something is happening that we’ve never experienced before. One thing that might help is to distract yourself while doing something productive. It’s easy to get frozen by news reports and fear. See if this helps get your mind on
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