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All Eyes on the Fed? A Look at Federal Funds Rate, Bond Return, and Term Premium

KEY TAKEAWAYS The prospect of an increase in the federal funds rate has raised questions about future bond performance for some investors. Our analysis of global government bond data from 1984–2021 shows no reliable relation between past changes in the federal funds rate and either future bond excess return over cash or future term premiums. We can target higher expected returns by dynamically varying a strategy’s duration decision based on current term spreads across global yield curves. US consumer prices
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Dipping Points

Through January 27, 2022, U.S. stocks were down a little more than 10% from the end of 2021 (1). If not for a strong session on Friday, January 28, U.S. stocks would have had a fourth consecutive week of negative returns. Like rough waters at sea, choppy markets can lead to anxiety and discomfort, and inevitably everyone wonders how long we will have to wait for things to calm down. When volatility increases, it is perfectly natural to worry about
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